Serbia vs England  – EURO 2024 Tips & Analysis – June 14, 2024

Top Three Most Likely Outcomes:

1. 1-1 Draw - 11.04%
2. 0-1 England Win - 8.76%
3. 1-2 England Win - 9.41%

Probabilities for Key Outcomes:

• Over/Under 2.5 Goals:
  • Over: 56.9%
  • Under: 43.1%
    
    
• First Half Winner:
  • Serbia: 27.05%
  • England: 33.09%
  • Draw: 39.86%
    
    
• Team to Score First:
  • Serbia: 46.41%
  • England: 48.31%
  • No Goal: 5.28%

Team Form and Key Players

Serbia

Recent Form:

• Serbia has shown a mixed form in their recent matches, with a combination of wins, draws, and losses. They have been relatively strong at home but have struggled in away fixtures.

Key Players:

• Dusan Tadic: The experienced playmaker is crucial for Serbia’s attacking play. His vision and passing ability can unlock defenses.
• Aleksandar Mitrovic: A physical presence up front, Mitrovic is known for his aerial prowess and goal-scoring ability.

England

Recent Form:

• England has been in excellent form, with a series of strong performances in both qualifiers and friendlies. They have a balanced squad with depth in every position.

Key Players:

• Harry Kane: The captain and talisman, Kane is a prolific goal-scorer and a leader on the pitch.
• Phil Foden: A creative force in midfield, Foden’s dribbling and vision make him a constant threat.
• Declan Rice: A solid defensive midfielder, Rice provides stability and breaks up opposition attacks.
  

Top Three Most Likely Outcomes:

1. 1-1 Draw - 11.04%
2. 0-1 England Win - 8.76%
3. 1-2 England Win - 9.41%

Probabilities for Key Outcomes:

• Over/Under 2.5 Goals:
  • Over: 56.9%
  • Under: 43.1%
    
    
• First Half Winner:
  • Serbia: 27.05%
  • England: 33.09%
  • Draw: 39.86%
    
    
• Team to Score First:
  • Serbia: 46.41%
  • England: 48.31%
  • No Goal: 5.28%

Corners Over/Under:

• Over 4 Corners: 88.71%
• Over 5 Corners: 80.29%
• Over 6 Corners: 69.59%
• Over 7 Corners: 57.52%
• Over 8 Corners: 45.29%
• Over 9 Corners: 34%
• Over 10 Corners: 24.42%
• Over 11 Corners: 16.86%

Goals Over/Under:

• Over 1.5 Goals: 79.3%
• Over 2.5 Goals: 56.9%
• Over 3.5 Goals: 33.46%
• Over 4.5 Goals: 20.19%
  

Detailed Analysis:

• England is slightly favored to win, with a higher probability of scoring first and winning the match.
• Serbia has a fair chance to draw or even win, especially if they manage to score first.
• The match is expected to have a moderate number of goals, with a higher likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored.
• Corners are expected to be frequent, with a high probability of over 4 corners in the match.

Match Details:

• Date: June 16, 2024
• Time: 19:00 (UTC)
• League: European Championship (UEFA EURO 2024)

Top Three Most Likely Outcomes:

1. 1-1 Draw - 11.04%
2. 0-1 England Win - 8.76%
3. 1-2 England Win - 9.41%

Correct Score Probability:

• 0-0: 5.28%
• 0-1: 8.76%
• 0-2: 7.02%
• 0-3: 3.73%
• 1-0: 6.64%
• 1-1: 11.04%
• 1-2: 9.41%
• 1-3: 4.84%
• 2-0: 4.65%
• 2-1: 7.34%
• 2-2: 6.06%
• 2-3: 3.31%
• 3-0: 1.78%
• 3-1: 3.24%
• 3-2: 2.58%
• 3-3: 1.41%
• Other Scores: 12.89%

First Half Winner Probability:

• Serbia: 27.05%
• England: 33.09%
• Draw: 39.86%

Team To Score First Probability:

• Serbia: 46.41%
• England: 48.31%
• No Goal: 5.28%

Double Chance Probability:

• Draw or Serbia Win: 53.88%
• Draw or England Win: 69.91%
• Serbia or England Win: 76.21%

Over/Under Goals Probability:

• Over 1.5 Goals: 79.3%
• Under 1.5 Goals: 20.7%
• Over 2.5 Goals: 56.9%
• Under 2.5 Goals: 43.1%
• Over 3.5 Goals: 33.46%
• Under 3.5 Goals: 66.54%
• Over 4.5 Goals: 20.19%
• Under 4.5 Goals: 79.81%

Corners Over/Under Probability:

• Over 4 Corners: 88.71%
• Over 5 Corners: 80.29%
• Over 6 Corners: 69.59%
• Over 7 Corners: 57.52%
• Over 8 Corners: 45.29%
• Over 9 Corners: 34%
• Over 10 Corners: 24.42%
• Over 11 Corners: 16.86%

Home/Away Over/Under Goals Probability:

• Serbia Over 0.5 Goals: 66.81%
• Serbia Over 1.5 Goals: 34.88%
• Serbia Over 2.5 Goals: 13.52%
• Serbia Over 3.5 Goals: 4.51%
• England Over 0.5 Goals: 77.32%
• England Over 1.5 Goals: 46.93%
• England Over 2.5 Goals: 21.86%
• England Over 3.5 Goals: 8.57%

Half Time/Full Time Probability:

• Serbia/Serbia: 19.62%
• Serbia/Draw: 10.41%
• Serbia/England: 8.76%
• Draw/Serbia: 13.52%
• Draw/Draw: 19.62%
• Draw/England: 28.07%
• England/Serbia: 4.51%
• England/Draw: 5.28%
• England/England: 33.09%
  

Team Form and Key Players

Serbia

Recent Form:

• Serbia has shown a mixed form in their recent matches, with a combination of wins, draws, and losses. They have been relatively strong at home but have struggled in away fixtures.

Key Players:

• Dusan Tadic: The experienced playmaker is crucial for Serbia’s attacking play. His vision and passing ability can unlock defenses.
• Aleksandar Mitrovic: A physical presence up front, Mitrovic is known for his aerial prowess and goal-scoring ability.
• Sergej Milinkovic-Savic: A dynamic midfielder who can contribute both defensively and offensively.

Strengths:

• Set Pieces: Serbia is strong in aerial duels and set pieces, often capitalizing on corners and free-kicks.
• Physicality: They play a physical game, which can disrupt the rhythm of technically superior teams.

Weaknesses:

• Defensive Consistency: Serbia has struggled with maintaining defensive solidity, often conceding goals due to lapses in concentration.
• Away Form: Their performance tends to dip when playing away from home.

England

Recent Form:

• England has been in excellent form, with a series of strong performances in both qualifiers and friendlies. They have a balanced squad with depth in every position.

Key Players:

• Harry Kane: The captain and talisman, Kane is a prolific goal-scorer and a leader on the pitch.
• Phil Foden: A creative force in midfield, Foden’s dribbling and vision make him a constant threat.
• Declan Rice: A solid defensive midfielder, Rice provides stability and breaks up opposition attacks.

Strengths:

• Attacking Depth: England has a wealth of attacking options, allowing them to change tactics and personnel without losing quality.
• Defensive Organization: They are well-organized defensively, with a strong backline and a reliable goalkeeper in Jordan Pickford.

Weaknesses:

• Pressure Handling: England has historically struggled with handling pressure in major tournaments, which can affect their performance in crucial moments.
• Injury Concerns: Key players have had injury issues, which could impact their availability and performance.

Statistical Analysis

Correct Score Probability

• 1-1 Draw (11.04%): The most likely outcome, suggesting a closely contested match with both teams finding the net.
• 0-1 England Win (8.76%): Indicates a strong possibility of England securing a narrow victory.
• 1-2 England Win (9.41%): Another likely scenario where England edges out Serbia with a slightly higher goal margin.

First Half Winner Probability

• Serbia (27.05%): Serbia has a fair chance of leading at halftime, leveraging their home advantage and physical play.
• England (33.09%): England is more likely to be ahead at halftime, reflecting their overall stronger squad and form.
• Draw (39.86%): A high probability of a draw at halftime, indicating a balanced first half.

Team To Score First Probability

• Serbia (46.41%): Serbia has a nearly equal chance to score first, which could be crucial in setting the tone of the match.
• England (48.31%): England is slightly more likely to score first, which aligns with their attacking prowess.

Double Chance Probability

• Draw or Serbia Win (53.88%): Serbia has a decent chance to avoid defeat, either by drawing or winning.
• Draw or England Win (69.91%): England is more likely to avoid defeat, highlighting their stronger position.
• Serbia or England Win (76.21%): A high probability that the match will not end in a draw, favoring a decisive result.

Over/Under Goals Probability

• Over 1.5 Goals (79.3%): High likelihood of at least two goals being scored in the match.
• Over 2.5 Goals (56.9%): More than half the probability suggests three or more goals, indicating an open game.
• Over 3.5 Goals (33.46%): One-third chance of a high-scoring match with four or more goals.

Tactical Insights

Serbia’s Approach:

• Defensive Solidity: Serbia will need to focus on maintaining a solid defensive structure to counter England’s attacking threats.
• Utilizing Set Pieces: They should capitalize on their strength in set pieces to create scoring opportunities.
• Physical Play: Serbia’s physicality can disrupt England’s rhythm, especially in midfield battles.

England’s Approach:

• High Press: England is likely to employ a high press to force errors and regain possession quickly.
• Wide Play: Utilizing the wings with players like Foden and Saka to stretch Serbia’s defense and create crossing opportunities.
• Control Midfield: Dominating the midfield with players like Rice and Bellingham to control the tempo and dictate play.

Conclusion

The match between Serbia and England is poised to be a competitive encounter with both teams having their strengths and weaknesses. England is slightly favored to win, but Serbia’s home advantage and physical play could make it a challenging game for the Three Lions. The probability metrics suggest a closely contested match with a high likelihood of goals. Key players from both teams will play crucial roles in determining the outcome.