Serbia vs England  – EURO 2024 Tips & Analysis – June 14, 2024

Top Three Most Likely Outcomes:

  1. 1-1 Draw – 11.04%
  2. 0-1 England Win – 8.76%
  3. 1-2 England Win – 9.41%

Probabilities for Key Outcomes:

  • Over/Under 2.5 Goals:
    • Over: 56.9%
    • Under: 43.1%

  • First Half Winner:
    • Serbia: 27.05%
    • England: 33.09%
    • Draw: 39.86%

  • Team to Score First:
    • Serbia: 46.41%
    • England: 48.31%
    • No Goal: 5.28%

Team Form and Key Players

Serbia

Recent Form:

  • Serbia has shown a mixed form in their recent matches, with a combination of wins, draws, and losses. They have been relatively strong at home but have struggled in away fixtures.

Key Players:

  • Dusan Tadic: The experienced playmaker is crucial for Serbia’s attacking play. His vision and passing ability can unlock defenses.
  • Aleksandar Mitrovic: A physical presence up front, Mitrovic is known for his aerial prowess and goal-scoring ability.

England

Recent Form:

  • England has been in excellent form, with a series of strong performances in both qualifiers and friendlies. They have a balanced squad with depth in every position.

Key Players:

  • Harry Kane: The captain and talisman, Kane is a prolific goal-scorer and a leader on the pitch.
  • Phil Foden: A creative force in midfield, Foden’s dribbling and vision make him a constant threat.
  • Declan Rice: A solid defensive midfielder, Rice provides stability and breaks up opposition attacks.

Top Three Most Likely Outcomes:

  1. 1-1 Draw – 11.04%
  2. 0-1 England Win – 8.76%
  3. 1-2 England Win – 9.41%

Probabilities for Key Outcomes:

  • Over/Under 2.5 Goals:
    • Over: 56.9%
    • Under: 43.1%

  • First Half Winner:
    • Serbia: 27.05%
    • England: 33.09%
    • Draw: 39.86%

  • Team to Score First:
    • Serbia: 46.41%
    • England: 48.31%
    • No Goal: 5.28%

Corners Over/Under:

  • Over 4 Corners: 88.71%
  • Over 5 Corners: 80.29%
  • Over 6 Corners: 69.59%
  • Over 7 Corners: 57.52%
  • Over 8 Corners: 45.29%
  • Over 9 Corners: 34%
  • Over 10 Corners: 24.42%
  • Over 11 Corners: 16.86%

Goals Over/Under:

  • Over 1.5 Goals: 79.3%
  • Over 2.5 Goals: 56.9%
  • Over 3.5 Goals: 33.46%
  • Over 4.5 Goals: 20.19%

Detailed Analysis:

  • England is slightly favored to win, with a higher probability of scoring first and winning the match.
  • Serbia has a fair chance to draw or even win, especially if they manage to score first.
  • The match is expected to have a moderate number of goals, with a higher likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored.
  • Corners are expected to be frequent, with a high probability of over 4 corners in the match.

 



Match Details:

  • Date: June 16, 2024
  • Time: 19:00 (UTC)
  • League: European Championship (UEFA EURO 2024)

Top Three Most Likely Outcomes:

  1. 1-1 Draw – 11.04%
  2. 0-1 England Win – 8.76%
  3. 1-2 England Win – 9.41%

Correct Score Probability:

  • 0-0: 5.28%
  • 0-1: 8.76%
  • 0-2: 7.02%
  • 0-3: 3.73%
  • 1-0: 6.64%
  • 1-1: 11.04%
  • 1-2: 9.41%
  • 1-3: 4.84%
  • 2-0: 4.65%
  • 2-1: 7.34%
  • 2-2: 6.06%
  • 2-3: 3.31%
  • 3-0: 1.78%
  • 3-1: 3.24%
  • 3-2: 2.58%
  • 3-3: 1.41%
  • Other Scores: 12.89%

First Half Winner Probability:

  • Serbia: 27.05%
  • England: 33.09%
  • Draw: 39.86%

Team To Score First Probability:

  • Serbia: 46.41%
  • England: 48.31%
  • No Goal: 5.28%

Double Chance Probability:

  • Draw or Serbia Win: 53.88%
  • Draw or England Win: 69.91%
  • Serbia or England Win: 76.21%

Over/Under Goals Probability:

  • Over 1.5 Goals: 79.3%
  • Under 1.5 Goals: 20.7%
  • Over 2.5 Goals: 56.9%
  • Under 2.5 Goals: 43.1%
  • Over 3.5 Goals: 33.46%
  • Under 3.5 Goals: 66.54%
  • Over 4.5 Goals: 20.19%
  • Under 4.5 Goals: 79.81%

Corners Over/Under Probability:

  • Over 4 Corners: 88.71%
  • Over 5 Corners: 80.29%
  • Over 6 Corners: 69.59%
  • Over 7 Corners: 57.52%
  • Over 8 Corners: 45.29%
  • Over 9 Corners: 34%
  • Over 10 Corners: 24.42%
  • Over 11 Corners: 16.86%

Home/Away Over/Under Goals Probability:

  • Serbia Over 0.5 Goals: 66.81%
  • Serbia Over 1.5 Goals: 34.88%
  • Serbia Over 2.5 Goals: 13.52%
  • Serbia Over 3.5 Goals: 4.51%
  • England Over 0.5 Goals: 77.32%
  • England Over 1.5 Goals: 46.93%
  • England Over 2.5 Goals: 21.86%
  • England Over 3.5 Goals: 8.57%

Half Time/Full Time Probability:

  • Serbia/Serbia: 19.62%
  • Serbia/Draw: 10.41%
  • Serbia/England: 8.76%
  • Draw/Serbia: 13.52%
  • Draw/Draw: 19.62%
  • Draw/England: 28.07%
  • England/Serbia: 4.51%
  • England/Draw: 5.28%
  • England/England: 33.09%

 

Team Form and Key Players

Serbia

Recent Form:

  • Serbia has shown a mixed form in their recent matches, with a combination of wins, draws, and losses. They have been relatively strong at home but have struggled in away fixtures.

Key Players:

  • Dusan Tadic: The experienced playmaker is crucial for Serbia’s attacking play. His vision and passing ability can unlock defenses.
  • Aleksandar Mitrovic: A physical presence up front, Mitrovic is known for his aerial prowess and goal-scoring ability.
  • Sergej Milinkovic-Savic: A dynamic midfielder who can contribute both defensively and offensively.

Strengths:

  • Set Pieces: Serbia is strong in aerial duels and set pieces, often capitalizing on corners and free-kicks.
  • Physicality: They play a physical game, which can disrupt the rhythm of technically superior teams.

Weaknesses:

  • Defensive Consistency: Serbia has struggled with maintaining defensive solidity, often conceding goals due to lapses in concentration.
  • Away Form: Their performance tends to dip when playing away from home.

England

Recent Form:

  • England has been in excellent form, with a series of strong performances in both qualifiers and friendlies. They have a balanced squad with depth in every position.

Key Players:

  • Harry Kane: The captain and talisman, Kane is a prolific goal-scorer and a leader on the pitch.
  • Phil Foden: A creative force in midfield, Foden’s dribbling and vision make him a constant threat.
  • Declan Rice: A solid defensive midfielder, Rice provides stability and breaks up opposition attacks.

Strengths:

  • Attacking Depth: England has a wealth of attacking options, allowing them to change tactics and personnel without losing quality.
  • Defensive Organization: They are well-organized defensively, with a strong backline and a reliable goalkeeper in Jordan Pickford.

Weaknesses:

  • Pressure Handling: England has historically struggled with handling pressure in major tournaments, which can affect their performance in crucial moments.
  • Injury Concerns: Key players have had injury issues, which could impact their availability and performance.

 

Statistical Analysis

Correct Score Probability

  • 1-1 Draw (11.04%): The most likely outcome, suggesting a closely contested match with both teams finding the net.
  • 0-1 England Win (8.76%): Indicates a strong possibility of England securing a narrow victory.
  • 1-2 England Win (9.41%): Another likely scenario where England edges out Serbia with a slightly higher goal margin.

First Half Winner Probability

  • Serbia (27.05%): Serbia has a fair chance of leading at halftime, leveraging their home advantage and physical play.
  • England (33.09%): England is more likely to be ahead at halftime, reflecting their overall stronger squad and form.
  • Draw (39.86%): A high probability of a draw at halftime, indicating a balanced first half.

Team To Score First Probability

  • Serbia (46.41%): Serbia has a nearly equal chance to score first, which could be crucial in setting the tone of the match.
  • England (48.31%): England is slightly more likely to score first, which aligns with their attacking prowess.

Double Chance Probability

  • Draw or Serbia Win (53.88%): Serbia has a decent chance to avoid defeat, either by drawing or winning.
  • Draw or England Win (69.91%): England is more likely to avoid defeat, highlighting their stronger position.
  • Serbia or England Win (76.21%): A high probability that the match will not end in a draw, favoring a decisive result.

Over/Under Goals Probability

  • Over 1.5 Goals (79.3%): High likelihood of at least two goals being scored in the match.
  • Over 2.5 Goals (56.9%): More than half the probability suggests three or more goals, indicating an open game.
  • Over 3.5 Goals (33.46%): One-third chance of a high-scoring match with four or more goals.

Tactical Insights

Serbia’s Approach:

  • Defensive Solidity: Serbia will need to focus on maintaining a solid defensive structure to counter England’s attacking threats.
  • Utilizing Set Pieces: They should capitalize on their strength in set pieces to create scoring opportunities.
  • Physical Play: Serbia’s physicality can disrupt England’s rhythm, especially in midfield battles.

England’s Approach:

  • High Press: England is likely to employ a high press to force errors and regain possession quickly.
  • Wide Play: Utilizing the wings with players like Foden and Saka to stretch Serbia’s defense and create crossing opportunities.
  • Control Midfield: Dominating the midfield with players like Rice and Bellingham to control the tempo and dictate play.

Conclusion

The match between Serbia and England is poised to be a competitive encounter with both teams having their strengths and weaknesses. England is slightly favored to win, but Serbia’s home advantage and physical play could make it a challenging game for the Three Lions. The probability metrics suggest a closely contested match with a high likelihood of goals. Key players from both teams will play crucial roles in determining the outcome.



Prediction

  1. England 2-1 Serbia – 60% Probability
  2. England 1-0 Serbia – 25% Probability
  3. Draw 1-1 – 15% Probability

Detailed Analysis

Team Form and Performance

  • England: Historically, England has been a strong contender in international tournaments. They have a robust squad with a mix of experienced players and young talents. Their recent performances in qualifiers and friendlies have been impressive, showing solid defense and a potent attack.
  • Serbia: Serbia is known for its physical style of play and has some talented players, especially in midfield and attack. However, they have been inconsistent in recent international competitions.

Serbia vs England Player Availability

  • England: Key players like Harry Kane, Raheem Sterling, and Jordan Henderson are expected to be fit and in form. England also has a deep bench with promising young players like Phil Foden and Bukayo Saka.
  • Serbia: Serbia will rely heavily on players like Dusan Tadic and Aleksandar Mitrovic. Any injuries to these key players could significantly impact their performance.

Head-to-Head Records

  • Historically, England has had the upper hand in matches against Serbia. However, these encounters have often been closely contested.

Home Advantage

  • The match will be played in Germany, so neither team has a home advantage. However, England’s fans are known for traveling in large numbers, which could provide a slight boost.

Motivation and Stakes in Serbia vs England Match EURO 2024

  • Both teams will be highly motivated as this is a group-stage match in a major tournament like EURO 2024. England will aim to start strong to set the tone for the rest of the tournament, while Serbia will look to make a statement by upsetting a stronger team.

Betting Tips for Serbia vs England – EURO 2024

  1. Bet on England to Win: Given their form and squad depth, England is the favorite to win this match.
  2. Bet on Under 2.5 Goals: Considering the cautious approach teams often take in the opening matches of a tournament, this could be a low-scoring affair.
  3. Bet on Both Teams to Score: Serbia has the attacking capability to breach England’s defense at least once.

Conclusion

While England is the favorite to win, Serbia should not be underestimated. The match is likely to be closely contested, with England’s superior squad depth and recent form giving them the edge. Keep an eye on the starting line-ups and any last-minute injury news, as these can significantly impact the outcome.

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